POLITICAL ANALYSIS OF SELECTED GREATER HORN OF AFRICA COUNTRIES – KENYA, SOMALIA AND SUDAN
 

SOMALIA

1. Arms Embargo

This carries many issues mixed together.  Because of the many seaports, an embargo is only by name as arms still flow into Somalia via land, air and sea.  The embargo cannot be effectively implemented due to the privately owned seaports along the 3,333kms of Somali coastline.  As of now it is only the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) that respects the embargo even though it does not seem to be working out.  The negative side effects arising from the embargo is as a result of commercial and fundamental groups having the strongest armed outfits.  The TFG therefore needs to create an armed force.  If the UNSC lifts the ban on arms, other groups will opt out of the embargo except the TFG.  As of now, the UN is not for the idea of an indigenous armed force created by Somali authorities.  Lifting of the arms embargo will help the TFG control the entire country. If this is not done the fundamentalists will be well on their way to establishing an Islamic government resembling that of Talibans.

The US stand on the embargo is so because they do not have the reality of the situation on the ground.  This is because report of the factual condition on the ground may be a source of danger to the reporter.  It is highly likely the US will continue with their stand on the arms embargo because no change has been registered since the last review took place.

The US should support the TFG, because if this does not happen then the disintegration of Somalia will escalate and eventually aggravate terrorist attacks.

Conditions for President Abdullahi Yusuf

There are no clear outright conditions set in place for the President to fulfill in order to attract US support.  But the US is vague on what they want even though President Ahmed Abdullahi Yusuf is willing to have cordial relations with the international community.  Indeed, President Yusuf is the first high ranking Somali (warlord) to have fought against the terrorists in the port of Bosaso, in today’s Puntland.  (* a fact that the US is aware of)

US-Yusuf Relations

             I.      There is no bad blood between him and the US (fairly good)

 he is very flexible; he is not interested in personal gains.  Even though President Yusuf is a former warlord, the Prime Minister Ali Gedi is from the Civil Society.  Former warlords constitute 90% of the cabinet.  This calls for support by the international community.

Dissidents

There are several dissident groups – business, sharia courts, fundamental groups like Fundamental (these are about 15) and other warlords.  They do have a financial interest/gain.  The same groups have joined forces in printing fake Somali currency with the main aim of destroying the Yusuf-led government.  Even then they do not have an alternative President to put in place should they succeed.  It is possible that the group has support from elsewhere outside Somalia e.g. those in the diaspora. It is clear that they have links with other governments who support pseudo-humanitarian projects in Somalia.

Somaliland

The current constitution says Somalia is indivisible.  This makes the northern part occupied by Somaliland part and parcel of the Republic.  At Mbagathi, Nairobi, the delegates preferred a united Somalia. This means, Somaliland, Puntland, Jubaland, Banadir land, Bay land , etc can only be federal states.

What if Somaliland manages to secede from the rest?

 

This would create internal conflict within clans in North West (former British colony area).  It would also open a floodgate for other African countries to follow suit.  At the moment, with the TFG in place, why should e.g.  Punt land, Banadirland, Juba land etc be recognized.

How would IGAD deal with this scenario?

IGAD would definitely try and stem the destruction of Somalia to avoid recurrence of the same phenomena in other IGAD member countries.  Somalia is a founder member of IGAD during the Siad Barre regime and would certainly try and preserve what they created.

Source: Hon. Abdirashid Hidig Deputy Minister for National Security in Somalia.